I decided to write about this topic because I have listened to what people have to say. It would be easy to shut out criticism, keep my head down and just spew out my opinions. I have analyzed this several times and each time I end up wondering what it is exactly that my critics "don't understand?" Are my writings being misinterpreted? Are my theories "too far out there?" Have they been flat wrong? I try to tell the truth "according to me" (that's all I can do) and I know that many times it is not popular ...but it has turned out that "popular" when all was said and done was not the truth or even close to it. I can remember how unpopular writing that the U.S. was going to bankrupt themselves back in 2008 by trying to rescue everything...how does that look now in retrospect?
Here is how I see it: the majority of humans are usually optimistic (especially Americans) which is not by itself a bad thing. Humans also would prefer to live in a world of little conflict. "Conflict" meaning physically, mentally, socially or whatever. People generally would prefer "not to rock the boat" simply because the alternative may be worse than the present circumstances.
I "rock the boat" while writing about the economy, markets, geopolitics etc. because many times I see gaping holes in the bottom of the boat. Rarely do I just spout out an opinion without having (or providing) some sort of logic behind it. Often times I will even do the "2+2=4" math in written long hand to help readers connect the dots for themselves. What good would it do to write an opinion or hypotheses and not support it with any facts or logic? Those who already agree with me still would and those that don't agree with me would shut down and maybe never even read my "drivel" again. Those on the fence wouldn't be swayed towards "my truth" (belief) without a chain of logic and slowly (maybe even quickly) would see my e-mail and simply delete "the raving lunatic." I write what I write for several reasons: I believe everything that I say. I try not to waste time on unimportant topics, I try to pick battles that are or will be meaningful to the masses. Because I see danger in illogical "group think," I try to shake people into waking up and actually thinking for themselves. I guess my reasoning for writing is that "someone has to do it," originally back in early 2007 I just wanted to be on the record because 99 out of 100 people told me I was nuts.
First off, I don't mean to upset anyone else by saying that "someone has to do it" because there are many doing the same thing that I am. The internet is filled with some very good and very smart "truth tellers" that should be read and followed. Maybe it is because I can see something (like 3 steel buildings fall down, only 2 supposedly because of fire) and know that it is an impossibility. Maybe it is because I have been termed an "idiot" for having views that were so far off the radar (at the time). Many times it took just a little more time for my crazy view to show up on the far edges of anyone's (other than the fringe) radar. Maybe I just want to be able to look back and think to myself, "yes I knew that?"
Let me put it this way, who in the world would have thought 25-30 years ago that ANY of "today" could have happened? Was it even possible that the Constitution could ever be "torn" much less shredded to bits during the Reagan years? Could the U.S. ever have run $1 trillion annual deficits? Or could the Fed ever have had a $4 trillion balance sheet...much of which is "junkier" than Treasury bonds? Could they have ever "secretly" lent out $17 trillion to "save the world" (more than half to non U.S. institutions)? Could citizens ever have been afraid that the government would try to restrict them from owning firearms...while at the same time watching various agencies stockpiling 2 billion rounds of "domestic" ammo to be used against whom? Could anyone have ever imagined babies, children, the elderly (and everyone else for that matter) getting patted down and strip searched to be able to travel? Or how about having to pay a tax if you did not have the "right type" of insurance? Speaking of "insurance," can you imagine being required to have an imbedded "chip" to access your "coverage?" I have to wonder how long it will be before you are required to have this "benefit" to access (purchase) rice and beans at Walmart...but there I go again as President Reagan was so fond of saying.
Here we are now with much more debt, derivatives and money supply than in the pre-2007 good old days. The Treasury and our banks now have more leverage than they had going into the 2008 bankruptcy. We have more unemployed, more on food stamps and housing subsidy than ever before...and a smaller percentage working than in some 40 years. The "minority" is now working to support the "majority"...and the majority will vote to keep it this way. What is so "doom and gloom" about this? These are all "facts" that have become the givens of everyday life. If neither I nor anyone else said or wrote about this, would it make them "not so?" Does a hunter with a shotgun "vanish and go away" just because the ostrich tucks its head in the sand so as not to see him? No, it is what it is and the ostrich will end up filled with buckshot if it doesn't get its head out of the sand and start running.
I would love nothing better than being able to write that everyone should sell the bulk of their gold and put it into stocks or productive businesses because that's where I see the future to be. This day will come but we have to get there first, real money will help you get there. I'm sure that when (not if) this day comes, my sanity will again be questioned and I'll be branded as one of those crazy optimists! I call 'em the way I see them, good, bad or ugly which makes me neither an optimist nor a pessimist...I try to be a realist and support my conclusions with logic or in many cases "factual dots" that are easily connected.